NBA Playoff Predictions

I know, I know, they started earlier today but I'm always late anyways.

East


(1) Chicaco Bulls Defeat (8) Philadelphia 76ers

And the very first prediction is affected by a game that happened today. Derrick Rose is done for the rest of the playoffs with a torn ACL and MCL. Losing the reigning MVP in game 1 of the playoffs is usually a death nell for any team, but if there's any team equipped to compete without him it's the Bulls. They were without him for much of the season and still managed to maintain a stranglehold on the top spot in the Eastern Conference so they have proven that they can play without him. CJ Watson and John Lucas III are going to be extremely important in this series now and have shown that they can step up when called upon. The Bulls also have one of the best coaches in the league with Tom Thibodeau and one of the best big man rotations in the league in the form of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, and Omer Asik.

The Sixers are going to make this an interesting series because they can throw out great athletes and one of the best benches in the league. Andre Iguodala, J'Rue Holiday, Elton Brand, Lou Williams, Thad Young, and Evan Turner will lead Philly and could very well pull off the upset. I think, unfortunately for Philadelphia, this team is still a year and a scoring big man away from being a team capable of knocking off the Bulls. As it stands now, without Rose I can see the Sixers extending the series to six games, but not having enough to stop the Bulls.

Final: Bulls over Sixers in 6 games.

(2) Miami Heat Defeat (7) New York Knicks

This is the second game in a row where a game 1 injury is affecting my prediction. This time it isn't the reigning MVP but a rookie named Iman Shumpert. Now if you're not a big NBA fan then you've probably never heart of Iman Shumpert because he got overshadowed this year by teammate Jeremy Lin. Shumpert could probably be considered the "Anti-Lin" because of the way that he plays defense and doesn't dominate the ball on offense. For Celtics fans, Shumpert is comparable to a bigger Avery Bradley, complete with pressure defense and streaky shooting. Unfortunately for the Knicks Shumpert went down with what is being called "a probably torn ACL". Now with no one to play suffocating defense on Dwyane Wade, the Knicks are in rough shape because the other point guards on the roster, Mike Bibby and Baron Davis, haven't been good since Bush left office.

The Heat story is well known so I won't waste time explaining it here, I'll leave it for the next round when they have a better matchup. If Shumpert hadn't gotten hurt, I think this would have been the best series because the teams seemed evenly matched, and even with the injury I think it will still be more competitive than it looked today. If you have Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony then you are going to be in a series. I would bet that at least one game sharpshooters Steve Novak and JR Smith catch fire and win the Knicks a game but the Heat are going to be too much.

Final: Heat over Knicks in 5

(6) Orlando Magic Defeat (3) Indiana Pacers

I'm currently watching this game and the Magic are down by 2 points with two minutes left in the third. My favorite sports writer, Bill Simmons, has a theory that he called the "Ewing Theory". The idea is that when a teams best player gets hurt and is out for an extended time, that team comes together over the adversity and plays better than anyone expects. The theory is named for Patrick Ewing, as when he got hurt during the last strike season the Knicks shocked everyone and went from the eighth seed in the East to the NBA Finals. Currently Dwight Howard has gotten hurt and the Magic are a prime candidate to prove the "Ewing Theory" correct. The part that worries me is that the team right now is just a three point bombing squad that really has no inside presence. I've seen Big Baby play as a starter and it's not a good thing for the Magic.

I'm underrating the Pacers. I know I am, and I don't care. To me they are the most perplexingly good team in the league. Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert are there two best players and neither is a top 25 player in the NBA. My worry is that when the going gets tough and they need someone to take the ball and make a big shot they're all going to look at each other. Orlando has Big Baby, who for all his short-comings, definitely does not lack the confidence to take the big shot. So I'm going to ride the Magic in this series. I just have a feeling.

Final: Magic over Pacers in 7

(4) Boston Celtics Defeat (5) Atlanta Hawks

Homer pick? Sure. The Hawks are a good, athletic team that gave Boston trouble in 2008 when the Celtics' best players were four years younger. The difference this time is that Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia are both out for the series. Boston's biggest problem is rebounding, it's been their achilles heal all year long due to a lack of big quality big men. No Horford or Pachulia for the Hawks means that their rebounding will be that much weaker and Boston should be able to keep the rebounding numbers fairly equal.

The key to the Celtics success after the all star break has been the shrewd move by Doc of moving KG to the center position. I've written before and it's been well documented that Garnett has never wanted to be a center, but for the good of the team he moved over to allow Brandon Bass into the starting lineup as the power forward. Since then it's done wonders. Because Garnett and Bass are both lethal from 18 feet, the lane is wide open for Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, and Paul Pierce to slash to the basket. The emergence of Bradley, as not only the best wing defender in the conference but also as a decent shooter of the corner three, has made the offense that much smoother. Ray Allen is crucial to the team success but running plays designed to get him an open shot was slowing down the offense and hurting the flow of the game for the Celtics. Bradley is able to score points just by reacting to what Rondo does and cutting to the basket. The Hawks best chance is to hope Joe Johnson and Josh Smith play out of their mind. Johnson is certainly a capable offensive player and Smith can be one of the best defenders in the league when he's playing smart, unfortunately for the Hawks Josh Smith too often falls in love with the jump shot and when it isn't falling his defense suffers. The Celtics are winning this series, they just have too many positional advantages not to.

Final: Celtics over Hawks in 6

West


(1) San Antonio Spurs defeat (8) Utah Jazz

If the Grizzlies hadn't beaten San Antonio last year, I would have picked Utah this year. This series is going to be A LOT closer than anyone believes. The Spurs biggest weakness comes when they have to play a team with more than one quality big man. It's why they lost to the Grizzlies, with Z-Bo and Marc Gasol last year. Tim Duncan is getting older and even though he's still a great player, he can't cover for everyones' mistakes anymore. The Jazz boast a big man rotation of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter that can reek havoc down low. That means that Dejuan Blair and Tiago Splitter are going to have to prove their worth on the defensive end to at least slow those guys down.

Tony Parker and a healthy Manu Ginobili are going to be the difference for the Spurs this year. Ginobili got hurt last year and missed the series against the Grizzlies and Parker has been out of this world this year, even generating some MVP talk. Again though, I think the real reason I'm picking the Spurs here, even though my gut says they're in for a second "shocking exit" is because they lost last year and I can't see a team with Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich losing to an 8 seed twice.

Final: Spurs over Jazz in 7

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder defeat (7) Dallas Mavericks

The defending champs aren't getting out of the first round this year. The feel good moment of the sports year in 2011 was definitely the Mavs winning the NBA championship. To see Dirk, Jason Kidd, Peja Stojakovich, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, and Tyson Chandler finally get a ring was awesome, but it's not happening again. The trade for Lamar Odom killed this team. If you had told me that the Mavs were going to give up a first round pick and get Lamar Odom I would have told you it was a great trade but he imploded in Dallas and ruined the Mavs. The other reason I don't think the Mavs can win it  again is a reason that has nothing to do with talent. Last year they had the motivation to win it all because so many of them were dying to finally win a championship and get that ring, where is the motivation coming from this year? I'm sure Vince Carter would like a ring but he's not exactly the guy I'd want to have to try and get my team fired up. Don't worry though Mav fans, you'll have Deron Williams next year.

The Thunder are playing fantastic basketball with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook leading the way. Serge Ibaka, James Harden, and Kendrick Perkins are also playing well and contributing to a team that is becoming a well oiled machine. Can't see them losing yet, but I'll spoil the ending for you, this team isn't going to the finals. Why, you ask? Well look at this video. The man in the black (Shawn Michaels) is Russell Westbrook and the man in the red (Marty Jannetty) is Kevin Durant.



Final: OKC over Mavs in 6

(3) Los Angeles Lakers defeat Denver Nuggets

Not because of Kobe and Gasol but because of Andrew Bynum. He's the new big man in LA and should be the guy that the offense runs through. This will never happen because of Kobe but it should happen. The trade for Ramon Sessions at the trade deadline was probably the most helpful trade any team made at the deadline because it got Derek Fisher out of the starting lineup (and later he was sent away too). Sessions has been the steady hand that the Lakers have needed to solidify their starting lineup.

Why am I not picking Denver? Go back and read the reason I'm not picking Indy and it's the same reason. Lots of talent but no go-to guy.

Final: LA over Denver in 7 (only because I'm unsure about Kobe's injury situation)

(5) Memphis Grizzlies defeat (4) LA Clippers

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are great players (and great floppers) but they're overmatched in this series. The Grizzlies have too much talent to lose to the Clips. Randolph, Gasol, Gay, Conley, Tony Allen, Mayo, and the list goes on of guys who would be starters on the Clippers. They only two guys on the Clippers that would start for the Grizzlies are the aforementioned Paul and Griffin. Deandre Jordan has been a bust after signing a big new contract, Caron Butler is a shell of his former self, and Chauncey Billups went down early in the season with a rupture achilles possibly never to return.

So as great as Blake is when it comes to highlight reel dunks, his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Z-Bo and Gasol are going to eat him up inside. The only way the Clippers are going to win this series is if Chris Paul goes into "F-U" mode and puts the Clippers on his back for 4 games. Chris Paul is the best player in the series and has the ability to single handedly bring the Clippers to the second round but I'm not betting on it. Let's not forget as well that Vinny Del Negro is the worst coach in the league...it's not even debatable.

Final: Grizzlies over Clippers in 5.

So there you have the first round of the NBA playoffs. I'd love to hear from you guys on whether you agree, disagree, think I'm an idiot or whatever.

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-Josh