2nd Round NBA Playoff Predictions

First of all, thank you to everyone for the kind words on my first attempt, I really appreciate it. Hopefully this one will be even better, as I'm going to try some new things.

Eastern Conference

(1)Chicago Bulls over (5) Atlanta Hawks

This series is one that I think will be a lot closer than most "experts". The Hawks match up really well with the Bulls athletically, and the Bulls don't have a great center to create the mismatches that the Magic did with Dwight Howard. Derrick Rose, who reminds me of this guy, is the best point guard (and maybe player) in the league right now, but the Pacers have shown the league that he can be contained. They employed a strategy of playing him physically, really bodying him up and making him work for everything. The Bulls really underachieved in the first round, looking more vulnerable than anyone thought against the Pacers, and the Hawks are going to test them even further.

As for the Hawks in this series, a mid-season trade for Kirk Hinrich is going to be the key. Hinrich is a crafty, physical, veteran defender who can slow down Rose as well as anybody. Don't forget he and Rose shared the backcourt in Chicago during Rose's rookie year, so Hinrich has at least some insight on Rose. The big mismatch of the series is Joe Johnson against Keith Bogans. That is the matchup that the Hawks need to win if they hope to have a chance of upsetting the top ranked Bulls. Unfortunately for the Hawks and their 120 Million Dollar Man, he's made choking in the playoffs an art form.

Final Score: Bulls win the series 4-3

(3) Boston Celtics over (2) Miami Heat

This matchup almost seemed preordained from the moment this happened. Other than Cavs fans, it seemed like Boston fans were the most disgusted by the move and wanted to see Lebron lose the most. Well now both teams are going to have the opportunity to knock the other out of the playoffs. This series is the most compelling of the second round because of all the potential storylines involved. The "new" big three versus the "old" big three, Lebron versus Pierce, Bosh versus Garnett, Wade versus Allen, and maybe most importantly Delonte vs Gloria (everyone wins this one). The deciding point in this series is going to be health and the benches. Can Shaq get back on the court? What about Udonis Haslem? Which bench can contribute more? Which team's role players will be able to perform on the road?

The key to this series are the guys who will be starting the game on the bench. As a former basketball bench warmer I can safely say that having depth is important in any sport, but none more so than basketball. Top bench players will play almost 30 minutes in a given game, and need to be reliable for scoring, rebounding, playmaking, or defense every night. Upon inspection the benches breakdown to Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic (Shaq if healthy), and Delonte West against Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James Jones, Mario Chalmers, and Joel Anthony (Udonis Haslem if healthy). The Celtics bench has been their achilles heel all season, but they own the more talented players off the pine for this series. It does worry me that the Celtics advantage is in the form of Big Baby, but if he and the Bench Mob play up to their ability, the series should go to the Celtics.

Final Score: Celtics win 4-2.

Western Conference

(2) Los Angeles Lakers over (3) Dallas Mavericks

With all due respect to the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, the Mavericks have failed in the playoffs too many times for me to pick them over the two time defending champions. Look for Jason Kidd and Jason Terry to have big series, as that seems to be the trend when Derek Fisher is playing defense. I'm pretty sure at this point Fisher would have a tough time defending me. The Mavericks are going to have some issues of their own trying to defend the big men of the Lakers. With Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum, the Lakers are in a good position to push around the Mavericks on the block.

Now that isn't to say that the Mavericks have no chance. When they still have the best German import since Hasselhoff, there's always a chance. Their chances improved even more with the news that Kobe's ankle may not be as strong as he'd like. But the biggest news is that rumors are flying that Caron Butler might be back at some point in this series. Even with Rick Carlisle saying there is "zero chance" of a return happening against the Lakers, who knows what might happen. Tough Juice would certainly improve the defense on Kobe.

Final Score: Lakers win 4-2.

(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Looks like I was wrong about the Grizzlies and Spurs. The Grizz certainly impressed me by closing out the Spurs and holding all their stars in check, becoming only the fourth 8 seed to beat a 1 seed. Celtic castoff Tony Allen played incredible defense, Marc Gasol was great on both ends of the floor, and former "Jailblazer" Zach Randolph morphed into a team leader and outplayed Tim Duncan. I never thought I'd use the words Zach Randolph and outplayed in the same sentence as Tim Duncan, and not have it be Zach Randolph was outplayed by Tim Duncan. The Spurs look like they might be ready to start the rebuild, and in a small market that can be a painful process. And if you don't believe me just ask fans of the Sacramento Kings or Seattle Sonics.

Anways, for this series the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win. The league wants Kevin Durant to be the face of the league. He's pretty universally loved by everyone and is the sort of player that can be great for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Durant averaged around 15 or 16 free throws per game in this series and to see Tony Allen in lots of foul trouble. It's unfortunate but star players are refereed differently, and Durant definitely benefits from this bias. Perkins and Ibaka will be able to contain Gasol and Randolph much better than Duncan and Mcydess could. The big advantage for the Thunder though is at the point guard spot, because Russell Westbrook is going to have a huge advantage over Mike Conley.

One final note about the Spurs. Antonio Mcdyess has announced his retirement. He may have been a minor part of the Spurs this year, but he was well on his way to multiple all star appearances as a member of the Denver Nuggets before a knee injury took away his explosiveness and he sort of faded into the background.

Final Score: Thunder win 4-1

So there they are, my second round predictions. Again, thanks for giving it a read and I'd be interested to hear your comments on my picks and what you think of my writing. Enjoy the second round, this is the best time of the year.

-Josh

NBA Playoff Predictions

Welcome to my first attempt at blogging. I'm a certified sports fanatic and enjoy writing, so here goes nothing with my NBA playoff picks. I know a I'm a little late for the first round, so I'll gloss over these.

Eastern Conference

(1) Bulls over (8) Indiana

Series is already at 3-0 and Indiana has no one that can match up with Derrick Rose. He's (most likely) the MVP of the league for a reason, and his team won't get Dirk'd out of the playoffs in the first round by an 8 seed.

Dirk'd is the term I came up with for a 1 seed getting beaten by an 8 seed, when the 1 seed also has the MVP of the league on their team. Nothing like watching David Stern hand over the MVP trophy to the big German whose team got Pearl Harbored in the first round by the Warriors.

(2) Miami over (7) Philadelphia

Another series that is already at 3-0 and Miami has dominated for basically the entire time. Best thing about this series from a Philadelphia point of view is that Elton Brand has risen from the grave like Michael Jackson in Thriller. People forget that Brand was at one time among the best players in the league and is still only 32 years old. Coming off a bad achilles injury, it looks like he's getting some game back.

The Heat are gelling and that's bad news for the rest of the league. They look like there getting ready to live up to their title as the nWo of the NBA and dominate them like Hogan, Hall, and Nash used to dominate WCW. (You knew I'd get a wrestling reference in here)

(3)Boston over (6)New York

Maybe the most compelling series before the start of the playoffs. Boston's Big 3 versus New York's Big 3, was a storyline guaranteed to be beaten to death before the series started. Well with three games gone, and a 3-0 series lead for Boston, that storyline is much like Mike D'antoni, overrated. D'antoni has been out-coached by Doc Rivers throughout this entire series, leading to the Knicks fans booing him in a game 3 blowout at MSG. This series appears to be all but over, however a team with Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Mr. Big Shot, Chauncey Billups can never be counted out.

The most amazing part of this series is the astonishing, unbelievable, completely unforseen rise of Jermaine O'Neal as a player who actually MATTERS. J.O. was injured all year for the Celtics and most fans had no reason to think he would actually do anything in the playoffs, but he's come back with a purpose. With the trade of Kendrick Perkins, a disaster by any measure, it was hoped that Shaq would step up to fill the void, but Jermaine has been the O'Neal to step up and be the rock in the middle. Who would've thought in 2011 a team that was starting Paul Pierce, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen would be in the top four or five favorites to win a title?

(5)Atlanta over (4) Orlando

The only series in the East still in doubt at this point, with the Hawks up 2-1 over Orlando. The winner of this series gets the unenviable task of trying to stop Derrick Rose and the Bulls in the next round. The Magic have completely self destructed with only Dwight Howard being a reliable scorer for them and the Hawks are a super athletic team that has underachieved all season. The 120 million dollar man, aka Joe Johnson has been a disappointment, which was predicted by everyone EXCEPT Hawks management. Orlando traded their best backup big man, a veteran scorer on the wing, a 1st round pick and a decent 3 point shooting big man, for a broken down Gilbert "Agent 0" Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and not much else.

In my only upset of the first round out East, I have Atlanta beating the Magic. Atlanta has the athleticism advantage and the advantage off the bench. Super-sub Jamal Crawford is capable of going off for 30 in any game. You have to feel for Dwight, not only is he getting no help from his teammates in this series, but now the whole world knows that he can't grow a beard. I hope Otis Smith is happy in two years when he's unemployed and Dwight is wearing another teams jersey. Boston's nice this time of year Dwight.

Western Conference

(1) Spurs over (8) Grizzlies

The popular upset pick for the "experts" is that the Grizzlies are going to beat the Spurs, but I just don't see it. You can tell me all you want about the Grizzlies being more athletic, better defensively, younger, and faster, but when it comes down to it can you really pick a team led by Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Rudy Gay over a Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, led team? If I've learned one thing in all my years as a fan of basketball, it's that you never pick against Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. Until I see them choke in a playoff series, I can't pick against them and feel good about it. They're like the Yankees in that respect, you always know that no matter how badly they've played, they're always one win from turning it all around. Would it really surprise anyone if they went to a Game 7 with the Grizzlies and Tim Duncan came out and posted a 20pt 17reb 5ast 5blk game and the Spurs blew out them out? I didn't think so.

(2)Lakers over (7)Hornets

The Lakers are going to win this series, but the biggest story is the resurrection of Chris Paul. For the last three years, since his knee problems, he's looked human on the basketball court. Before that he was one of the top 3 players in the league and was robbed of an MVP award back in 2008. That Chris Paul was thought to be long gone, however in Game 1 he made a cameo appearance, leading the Hornets to an upset win. When he went off for 33pts 14ast 7reb and 4stl in Game 1, people were impressed with the numbers, but those didn't compare to the feeling everyone got when they realized that CP3 was back. Pre-injury Chris Paul was one of the most exciting and entertaining players to watch, a three hour thriller every time he stepped on the court. If he can keep it up, Derrick Rose might have found his competition for the title of "Best Point Guard Alive".

For the Lakers, this series has shown how important Pau Gasol is to them. Kobe is still their best player, but if Gasol isn't playing well, the Lakers are going to lose. Andrew Bynum has knees made of glass and Lamar Odom is more of an outside shooting big man, so they need Gasol to be in top shape before they see Kendrick Perkins in the next round. With Kobe and Phil, this team can never be counted out but this is looking like a year where they might bow out earlier than usual. Or maybe I'm just hoping.

(3)Dallas over (6) Portland

Another series with more "old" guys stepping up and delivering. Let's take a look at the Mavericks' roster, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Jason Terry, and Brendan Haywood, all with at least 9 years of experience. The window of opportunity is just about shut on this team, and a lot of these players are entering the "ring chasing" point of their careers. I think they're feeling the pressure to get it done this year. If they don't, then Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, and John Stockton are going to have competition from Dirk and Jason Kidd as the best players to never win a ring.

Portland has to be the most snake-bitten team of the last 10 years with both Greg Oden and Brandon Roy having the knee's of 80 year old men. The two most noteworthy things Oden has done in his career is when he performed at the ESPY's and when he took a picture of himself "au natural" and it got plastered all over the internet. He was supposed to come in and be the next great center, joining the ranks of Dwight Howard and Yao Ming, but apparently the inside of his knees look older than his outside (which is saying something, as he looked 35 when he was 18 years old). Brandon Roy was a 3-time all star whose knees went out this season and his career arc has now gone from the Clyde Drexler path to the Penny Hardaway path. At least Penny got to play in the finals once though, unfortunately it doesn't look like Roy is going to get that chance.

(4)Oklahoma City over (5) Denver

Who is the MVP of the Thunder? It's a man that hasn't scored a basket all season or pulled down a single rebound, in fact he hasn't been on the bench either. Sam Presti is the general manager of the Thunder, and also their MVP this season. With all apologies to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, they were a team that had no low post presence and would have been eaten alive by the Lakers again this season until Presti stepped up. He made a bold move with 6 weeks left in the season, trading starting power forward Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. He also made the move to get Nazr Mohammed from the Charlotte Bobcats, an underrated but very important pickup. Through these two moves he solidified the low post defense and also opened up playing time for second year player James Harden. Since the trade Serge Ibaka leads the league in blocks, as he's being allowed to roam the paint with Perkins providing great defense.

Denver has much the same story, with a big trade causing major changes halfway through their season. They traded Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the New York Knicks for half the city of Manhattan. The key pieces to the trade for Denver were Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Raymond Felton, who have stepped in and helped open up the Denver offense. The Nuggets actually played better after the trade of Carmelo and have a lot of choices to make this offseason in free agency. No one who trades a superstar ever gets full value, but the Nuggets did better than most, getting probably 80cents on the dollar.

So there's my first round predictions. Even though we're already halfway through the round, I'm sure that some of them will still be wrong. If you made it through and weren't bored to tears, I appreciate it. The next round should be up by Friday next week.

-Josh