Eastern Conference
(1) Bulls over (8) Indiana
Series is already at 3-0 and Indiana has no one that can match up with Derrick Rose. He's (most likely) the MVP of the league for a reason, and his team won't get Dirk'd out of the playoffs in the first round by an 8 seed.
Dirk'd is the term I came up with for a 1 seed getting beaten by an 8 seed, when the 1 seed also has the MVP of the league on their team. Nothing like watching David Stern hand over the MVP trophy to the big German whose team got Pearl Harbored in the first round by the Warriors.
(2) Miami over (7) Philadelphia
Another series that is already at 3-0 and Miami has dominated for basically the entire time. Best thing about this series from a Philadelphia point of view is that Elton Brand has risen from the grave like Michael Jackson in Thriller. People forget that Brand was at one time among the best players in the league and is still only 32 years old. Coming off a bad achilles injury, it looks like he's getting some game back.
The Heat are gelling and that's bad news for the rest of the league. They look like there getting ready to live up to their title as the nWo of the NBA and dominate them like Hogan, Hall, and Nash used to dominate WCW. (You knew I'd get a wrestling reference in here)
(3)Boston over (6)New York
Maybe the most compelling series before the start of the playoffs. Boston's Big 3 versus New York's Big 3, was a storyline guaranteed to be beaten to death before the series started. Well with three games gone, and a 3-0 series lead for Boston, that storyline is much like Mike D'antoni, overrated. D'antoni has been out-coached by Doc Rivers throughout this entire series, leading to the Knicks fans booing him in a game 3 blowout at MSG. This series appears to be all but over, however a team with Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Mr. Big Shot, Chauncey Billups can never be counted out.
The most amazing part of this series is the astonishing, unbelievable, completely unforseen rise of Jermaine O'Neal as a player who actually MATTERS. J.O. was injured all year for the Celtics and most fans had no reason to think he would actually do anything in the playoffs, but he's come back with a purpose. With the trade of Kendrick Perkins, a disaster by any measure, it was hoped that Shaq would step up to fill the void, but Jermaine has been the O'Neal to step up and be the rock in the middle. Who would've thought in 2011 a team that was starting Paul Pierce, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen would be in the top four or five favorites to win a title?
(5)Atlanta over (4) Orlando
The only series in the East still in doubt at this point, with the Hawks up 2-1 over Orlando. The winner of this series gets the unenviable task of trying to stop Derrick Rose and the Bulls in the next round. The Magic have completely self destructed with only Dwight Howard being a reliable scorer for them and the Hawks are a super athletic team that has underachieved all season. The 120 million dollar man, aka Joe Johnson has been a disappointment, which was predicted by everyone EXCEPT Hawks management. Orlando traded their best backup big man, a veteran scorer on the wing, a 1st round pick and a decent 3 point shooting big man, for a broken down Gilbert "Agent 0" Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and not much else.
In my only upset of the first round out East, I have Atlanta beating the Magic. Atlanta has the athleticism advantage and the advantage off the bench. Super-sub Jamal Crawford is capable of going off for 30 in any game. You have to feel for Dwight, not only is he getting no help from his teammates in this series, but now the whole world knows that he can't grow a beard. I hope Otis Smith is happy in two years when he's unemployed and Dwight is wearing another teams jersey. Boston's nice this time of year Dwight.
Western Conference
(1) Spurs over (8) Grizzlies
The popular upset pick for the "experts" is that the Grizzlies are going to beat the Spurs, but I just don't see it. You can tell me all you want about the Grizzlies being more athletic, better defensively, younger, and faster, but when it comes down to it can you really pick a team led by Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Rudy Gay over a Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, led team? If I've learned one thing in all my years as a fan of basketball, it's that you never pick against Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. Until I see them choke in a playoff series, I can't pick against them and feel good about it. They're like the Yankees in that respect, you always know that no matter how badly they've played, they're always one win from turning it all around. Would it really surprise anyone if they went to a Game 7 with the Grizzlies and Tim Duncan came out and posted a 20pt 17reb 5ast 5blk game and the Spurs blew out them out? I didn't think so.
(2)Lakers over (7)Hornets
The Lakers are going to win this series, but the biggest story is the resurrection of Chris Paul. For the last three years, since his knee problems, he's looked human on the basketball court. Before that he was one of the top 3 players in the league and was robbed of an MVP award back in 2008. That Chris Paul was thought to be long gone, however in Game 1 he made a cameo appearance, leading the Hornets to an upset win. When he went off for 33pts 14ast 7reb and 4stl in Game 1, people were impressed with the numbers, but those didn't compare to the feeling everyone got when they realized that CP3 was back. Pre-injury Chris Paul was one of the most exciting and entertaining players to watch, a three hour thriller every time he stepped on the court. If he can keep it up, Derrick Rose might have found his competition for the title of "Best Point Guard Alive".
For the Lakers, this series has shown how important Pau Gasol is to them. Kobe is still their best player, but if Gasol isn't playing well, the Lakers are going to lose. Andrew Bynum has knees made of glass and Lamar Odom is more of an outside shooting big man, so they need Gasol to be in top shape before they see Kendrick Perkins in the next round. With Kobe and Phil, this team can never be counted out but this is looking like a year where they might bow out earlier than usual. Or maybe I'm just hoping.
(3)Dallas over (6) Portland
Another series with more "old" guys stepping up and delivering. Let's take a look at the Mavericks' roster, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Jason Terry, and Brendan Haywood, all with at least 9 years of experience. The window of opportunity is just about shut on this team, and a lot of these players are entering the "ring chasing" point of their careers. I think they're feeling the pressure to get it done this year. If they don't, then Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, and John Stockton are going to have competition from Dirk and Jason Kidd as the best players to never win a ring.
Portland has to be the most snake-bitten team of the last 10 years with both Greg Oden and Brandon Roy having the knee's of 80 year old men. The two most noteworthy things Oden has done in his career is when he performed at the ESPY's and when he took a picture of himself "au natural" and it got plastered all over the internet. He was supposed to come in and be the next great center, joining the ranks of Dwight Howard and Yao Ming, but apparently the inside of his knees look older than his outside (which is saying something, as he looked 35 when he was 18 years old). Brandon Roy was a 3-time all star whose knees went out this season and his career arc has now gone from the Clyde Drexler path to the Penny Hardaway path. At least Penny got to play in the finals once though, unfortunately it doesn't look like Roy is going to get that chance.
(4)Oklahoma City over (5) Denver
Who is the MVP of the Thunder? It's a man that hasn't scored a basket all season or pulled down a single rebound, in fact he hasn't been on the bench either. Sam Presti is the general manager of the Thunder, and also their MVP this season. With all apologies to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, they were a team that had no low post presence and would have been eaten alive by the Lakers again this season until Presti stepped up. He made a bold move with 6 weeks left in the season, trading starting power forward Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. He also made the move to get Nazr Mohammed from the Charlotte Bobcats, an underrated but very important pickup. Through these two moves he solidified the low post defense and also opened up playing time for second year player James Harden. Since the trade Serge Ibaka leads the league in blocks, as he's being allowed to roam the paint with Perkins providing great defense.
Denver has much the same story, with a big trade causing major changes halfway through their season. They traded Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the New York Knicks for half the city of Manhattan. The key pieces to the trade for Denver were Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Raymond Felton, who have stepped in and helped open up the Denver offense. The Nuggets actually played better after the trade of Carmelo and have a lot of choices to make this offseason in free agency. No one who trades a superstar ever gets full value, but the Nuggets did better than most, getting probably 80cents on the dollar.
So there's my first round predictions. Even though we're already halfway through the round, I'm sure that some of them will still be wrong. If you made it through and weren't bored to tears, I appreciate it. The next round should be up by Friday next week.
-Josh
How do I also get certified as a sports fanatic?
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