Eastern Conference
(1)Chicago Bulls over (5) Atlanta Hawks
This series is one that I think will be a lot closer than most "experts". The Hawks match up really well with the Bulls athletically, and the Bulls don't have a great center to create the mismatches that the Magic did with Dwight Howard. Derrick Rose, who reminds me of this guy, is the best point guard (and maybe player) in the league right now, but the Pacers have shown the league that he can be contained. They employed a strategy of playing him physically, really bodying him up and making him work for everything. The Bulls really underachieved in the first round, looking more vulnerable than anyone thought against the Pacers, and the Hawks are going to test them even further.
As for the Hawks in this series, a mid-season trade for Kirk Hinrich is going to be the key. Hinrich is a crafty, physical, veteran defender who can slow down Rose as well as anybody. Don't forget he and Rose shared the backcourt in Chicago during Rose's rookie year, so Hinrich has at least some insight on Rose. The big mismatch of the series is Joe Johnson against Keith Bogans. That is the matchup that the Hawks need to win if they hope to have a chance of upsetting the top ranked Bulls. Unfortunately for the Hawks and their 120 Million Dollar Man, he's made choking in the playoffs an art form.
Final Score: Bulls win the series 4-3
(3) Boston Celtics over (2) Miami Heat
This matchup almost seemed preordained from the moment this happened. Other than Cavs fans, it seemed like Boston fans were the most disgusted by the move and wanted to see Lebron lose the most. Well now both teams are going to have the opportunity to knock the other out of the playoffs. This series is the most compelling of the second round because of all the potential storylines involved. The "new" big three versus the "old" big three, Lebron versus Pierce, Bosh versus Garnett, Wade versus Allen, and maybe most importantly Delonte vs Gloria (everyone wins this one). The deciding point in this series is going to be health and the benches. Can Shaq get back on the court? What about Udonis Haslem? Which bench can contribute more? Which team's role players will be able to perform on the road?
The key to this series are the guys who will be starting the game on the bench. As a former basketball bench warmer I can safely say that having depth is important in any sport, but none more so than basketball. Top bench players will play almost 30 minutes in a given game, and need to be reliable for scoring, rebounding, playmaking, or defense every night. Upon inspection the benches breakdown to Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic (Shaq if healthy), and Delonte West against Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James Jones, Mario Chalmers, and Joel Anthony (Udonis Haslem if healthy). The Celtics bench has been their achilles heel all season, but they own the more talented players off the pine for this series. It does worry me that the Celtics advantage is in the form of Big Baby, but if he and the Bench Mob play up to their ability, the series should go to the Celtics.
Final Score: Celtics win 4-2.
Western Conference
(2) Los Angeles Lakers over (3) Dallas Mavericks
With all due respect to the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, the Mavericks have failed in the playoffs too many times for me to pick them over the two time defending champions. Look for Jason Kidd and Jason Terry to have big series, as that seems to be the trend when Derek Fisher is playing defense. I'm pretty sure at this point Fisher would have a tough time defending me. The Mavericks are going to have some issues of their own trying to defend the big men of the Lakers. With Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum, the Lakers are in a good position to push around the Mavericks on the block.
Now that isn't to say that the Mavericks have no chance. When they still have the best German import since Hasselhoff, there's always a chance. Their chances improved even more with the news that Kobe's ankle may not be as strong as he'd like. But the biggest news is that rumors are flying that Caron Butler might be back at some point in this series. Even with Rick Carlisle saying there is "zero chance" of a return happening against the Lakers, who knows what might happen. Tough Juice would certainly improve the defense on Kobe.
Final Score: Lakers win 4-2.
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (8) Memphis Grizzlies
Looks like I was wrong about the Grizzlies and Spurs. The Grizz certainly impressed me by closing out the Spurs and holding all their stars in check, becoming only the fourth 8 seed to beat a 1 seed. Celtic castoff Tony Allen played incredible defense, Marc Gasol was great on both ends of the floor, and former "Jailblazer" Zach Randolph morphed into a team leader and outplayed Tim Duncan. I never thought I'd use the words Zach Randolph and outplayed in the same sentence as Tim Duncan, and not have it be Zach Randolph was outplayed by Tim Duncan. The Spurs look like they might be ready to start the rebuild, and in a small market that can be a painful process. And if you don't believe me just ask fans of the Sacramento Kings or Seattle Sonics.
Anways, for this series the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win. The league wants Kevin Durant to be the face of the league. He's pretty universally loved by everyone and is the sort of player that can be great for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Durant averaged around 15 or 16 free throws per game in this series and to see Tony Allen in lots of foul trouble. It's unfortunate but star players are refereed differently, and Durant definitely benefits from this bias. Perkins and Ibaka will be able to contain Gasol and Randolph much better than Duncan and Mcydess could. The big advantage for the Thunder though is at the point guard spot, because Russell Westbrook is going to have a huge advantage over Mike Conley.
One final note about the Spurs. Antonio Mcdyess has announced his retirement. He may have been a minor part of the Spurs this year, but he was well on his way to multiple all star appearances as a member of the Denver Nuggets before a knee injury took away his explosiveness and he sort of faded into the background.
Final Score: Thunder win 4-1
So there they are, my second round predictions. Again, thanks for giving it a read and I'd be interested to hear your comments on my picks and what you think of my writing. Enjoy the second round, this is the best time of the year.
-Josh
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