AFC
Steelers vs Broncos
Injuries: Rashard Mendenhall and Maurkice Pouncey are both out, while Big Ben, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Brett Kiesel are all hurt. For the Broncos only Brian Dawkins is out. The injury battle clearly favors Denver. With no Mendenhall the Steelers won't be able to effectively run the ball which puts, an already injured, Ben Roethlisberger into multiple obvious passing situations. The Denver defensive line is going to be able to tee off on Roethlisberger because his ankle injuries aren't going to allow him to evade the pass rush. With Pouncey being out, the offensive line is going to be weaker than usual, making Ben even more vulnerable.
For the Broncos it's going to be all about their defense. Missing Dawkins is going to be a much bigger problem than anyone thinks, but having Vonn Miller and Champ Bailey is definitely a plus. The other positive thing the Broncos bring to the table in this matchup is TIM TEBOW. After reading though Bill Simmons picks for this weekend, it almost seems like the stage is set for Tebow to win. His whole season has played out like a Disney movie and this is where he takes his biggest step.
With the game being in Denver that means thin air and the Steelers aren't used to playing in it....so for that reason, I'm picking the Tebow Time over Rapelisberger. Plus, does the bad guy ever win at the end of a disney movie?
Broncos 17 over Steelers 13
Texans vs Bengals
Why the Texans will lose: Yates or Delhomme? I know that TJ Yates is getting the start, but how long of a rope does he get until the coaches get antsy and put Jake Delhomme in? Delhomme is a former Superbowl quarterback and played fairly well in last weeks game against the Titans. Yates has been decent since coming in for Matt Schaub earlier this year and deserves the start, but with a season on the line he may not be enough to get it done. Even getting past the quarterback issues, they have injury problems. Andre Johnson is still a bit gimpy after his hamstring injury and they haven't had Mario Williams since October.
Why the Bengals will lose: Andy Dalton is a rookie starting quarterback in a playoff game against a good defense. He's been great this season, but the Bengals haven't beaten a good team all year and Dalton hasn't played well against a good defense yet. Arian Foster is the best running back in football...period. Finally, the game is in Houston. This is the first playoff game that the Texans have ever been in and their crowd is going to be amped up.
My pick? Yates and Dalton will both struggle, but the Texans have a better defense and a better running game so....
Texans 21 over Bengals 17
NFC
Saints vs Lions
The matchup of two 5,000 yard passers. This is going to be a video game type of contest where both offenses are going to put up a ton of points and both defenses are going to be frustrated. Matthew Stafford is turning into a great quarterback who, along with Calvin Johnson, is leading one of the best offenses in football. The only problem with that is that the team they're playing is THE best offense in football, led by a quarterback who broke the all time passing yards record and has more offensive weapons than anyone else in the league. With the game being in New Orleans and the Saints having Darren Sproles, aka Super Reggie Bush, I can't see any way that the Lions walk out of the Superdome with a victory.
I do have one prediction for this game though. Remember when the Ravens played against the Raiders back when they won the Superbowl? Tony Siragusa landed on Rich Gannon and broke his leg, effectively ending the Raiders season even before the final whistle. Well if you were to predict that to happen again wouldn't you bet on it being Ndamukong Suh accidently on purpose breaking Drew Brees' leg?
Saints 48 over Lions 35
Giants vs Falcons
Probably the hardest game of the weekend to predict. On paper I want to pick the Falcons but with the recent resurgence of the Giants I'm not sure that I can. The Falcons offense looks unstoppable on paper, however it hasn't worked out that way in reality this year. When you see a team that has Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Michael "Burner" Turner, putting up points shouldn't be an issue. The Falcons have sputtered in big games this year though. Eli Manning and the Giants have been the opposite of the Falcons this year, seemingly winning every big game and then dropping games that they should win.
Every expert is picking the Giants based on the reasons that I've outlined in the above paragraph. The mix of the Falcons losing big games and the Giants stepping up in big games has put the Falcons into a great situation. There is no pressure on them right now. The Giants have to sit here all week and listen to people talk about how this is just like the 2008 team that upset the undefeated Patriots, pumping up their confidence and possibly allowing them to overlook Atlanta.
This is my only upset pick of the first round, Atlanta is going to beat the New York football Giants. Eventually a good team puts it all together and plays a complete game. The Falcons haven't done it yet and the Giants are a team that just barely snuck into the playoffs by beating an overrated Dallas team. It's going to be close but final score....
Atlanta 24 over New York 21
I hope you enjoyed reading through my first round playoff predictions, be sure to check out next weeks predictions when I have to explain why all of these were wrong.
-Josh
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