Go ahead, watch it, because to understand what's going to happen in a week and a half you need to accept what happened four years ago. The 18-0 Patriots LOST to the Giants in Superbowl 42... go ahead and say it to yourself, punch a wall, throw things around, do whatever you need to, but just know that this happened. Are you good? Ok great, let's never watch that video again and move on because this year is completely different.
In Superbowl 42 the Patriots were the overwhelming favorites, due in large part to the fact that they hadn't lost a game yet and had the greatest offense of all time. Randy Moss, Tom Brady, and Wes Welker re-wrote the record books in 2007 but came up just short in the Superbowl. The Giants were a surprise team to get to the Superbowl, led by a devastating front four on defense and an emerging quarterback on offense. This year, the Patriots are still led by Welker and Brady, but they've been joined by Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez as well as Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis. The Giants conversely are led by a devastating front four and an emerged now-elite quarterback.
Hmm....so in 2007 the Patriots had a great offense and the Giants countered with an amazing defense......I guess things haven't changed much.
Now, on to the biggest story lines heading into the game:
1. The Patriots Revenge Tour
This is my favorite story line, primarily because I haven't heard anyone talk about it except me. Let's look at the Patriots playoff losses since their last Superbowl win: 2005 they lost to the Broncos in the playoffs, 2006 was a loss to the Colts in the AFC championship game, 2007 had a GIANT loss in the Superbowl, 2008 the team missed the playoffs, 2009 the Patriots lost to the Ravens in the first round, and 2010 they lost to the Jets in the first round. Take a look at that list again and tell me what they all have in common......stumped? In the 2011 season the Patriots beat the Colts and Jets (x2) in the regular season, then beat the Broncos and Ravens in the playoffs, bringing them to a Superbowl rematch. They have beaten EVERY team that eliminated them from the playoffs since 2004, and are looking to avenge the biggest loss a week from Sunday. I'm not sure why the "experts" aren't playing up this story line, since it all fell very nicely for them.
2. Eli becomes the most successful Manning?
25 years from now when Peyton and Eli are both retired, how will we remember them? If Eli wins this Superbowl he'll be remembered as one of the best playoff quarterbacks of his time and the ultimate Patriot killer. He will have affectively murdered the Patriots dynasty and been the only person that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick couldn't figure out. Peyton, assuming he doesn't win anymore Superbowls, will be remembered as the best stats quarterback of his generation. With the way people value championships and knowing that Superbowl 42 will be one of the most popular ESPN Classics games, isn't it possible that Eli will be remembered as the greater Manning? Will this be like thirty year old basketball fans today who have to argue the merits of Michael Jordan, while kids fawn over Lebron James? If Eli wins a week from Sunday, don't be surprised if Peyton fades from the common fan's mind and Eli is remembered as the best Manning.
3. Indianapolis
As if the Eli vs Peyton debate hasn't been beaten into the ground enough already, the Superbowl is taking place in the RCA Dome, otherwise known as "The House that Peyton Built." There's no question which team has the home field advantage in this game, it's clearly the Giants. Indy is full of not only Colts fans, not only Manning fans, but also Patriot haters. This could not be a worse location for New England to have to go play. There would be a certain sweetness for Tom Brady to go into Indy and beat Eli Manning in Peyton's stadium for his fourth Superbowl championship.
4. Tom Brady......not clutch?
Slow down Patriots fans, don't all start yelling at me, I know that Tom Brady has three championships, two MVP awards, and multiple fourth quarter comebacks, but he's been, shall we say spotty, lately. Tom has really struggled in big games since the last championship. He hasn't played particularly well in any playoff game since then and was actually outplayed by Joe Flacco last week against the Ravens. He struggled against the Jets last year, the Ravens the year before that, and even the Giants in the first Superbowl encounter. I'm not sure if it's age, desire, or nerves, but Tom Brady isn't the same Tom Brady that led the Patriots in the most clutch performance in Superbowl history when they beat the Greatest Show on Turf.
1 Bold N.E. Prediction: Chad Ochocinco is going to come up big for the Patriots in this game, catching at least one game breaking pass. Whether it's a touchdown, a crucial third down conversion or a late game catch down field, it will be important and he will do it.
1 Bold N.Y. Prediction: Jason Pierre-Paul will record a 4 sack game, cementing himself as the next leader of the Giants defensive line.
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 35 Giants 28
I have the Patriots winning this game by a touchdown. Last time the two teams met in the Superbowl the Patriots starting running back was Laurence Maroney. Needless to say, there wasn't a lot of running by the Patriots. This time they have BJGE and Danny Woodhead who are both significantly better than Maroney and will provide the Patriots with some balance this time around. The two tight ends, Gronk and Hernandez, are going to give the Patriots more options for the short passing game, whereas in 2007 it was Randy Moss deep or bust. The Giants do put the fear of God into me though with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Ahmed Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs all playing on turf. The horrendous Patriots secondary could get burned multiple times by Cruz, but I'm banking on them playing at least decently. The game will be a shootout and I'm banking on the Patriots offense to lead them to victory this time.
Let's be honest, I don't think I can take watching Eli Manning raise that trophy again.
Thanks for reading, be sure to leave a comment, become a follower, go back and read all my other columns, and enjoy the big game.
-Josh
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